VanEck Portfolio Manager Outlook 2026: Three Themes Drive the Market, Gold and Natural Resources Favored

Plan for 2026: Predictions from Our Portfolio Managers

Introduction

As 2026 approaches, global markets are searching for a new equilibrium after the adjustments of 2025. VanEck CEO Jan van Eck previously expressed cautious optimism, noting that fiscal progress is real and markets are stabilizing, but that AI evolution, credit tightening, and policy shifts require maintaining optionality. To complement the macro perspective, VanEck's portfolio managers share their outlooks across asset classes, revealing core investment opportunities for the year ahead.

Market Background

The macro environment for 2026 is shaped by three mega themes:

• AI Transformation: AI is moving from Phase 1 "building" to Phase 2 "adoption." Phase 1 rewarded scale and narrative; Phase 2 requires a credible ROI path for the largest tech capex cycle in history. This shift will expose uncomfortable realities, but volatility in technological revolutions is also opportunity.
• Real Asset Super Cycle: Real assets such as natural resource stocks have quietly outperformed QQQ this year, benefiting from AI infrastructure, the energy transition, and reshoring. We are still in the early stages of a decade-long real asset super cycle.
• Currency Debasement: Debt monetization is becoming a covert financial strategy to fill past debts and future ambitions, requiring hedging with scarce assets (e.g., gold and bitcoin).

Current Capital Flows

Multi-Asset: Expect increased volatility in the tech sector, but the long-term thesis for AI and robotics remains intact. Real assets are entering a "stealth bull market," with gold and bitcoin gaining attention as hedging tools. Gold has performed strongly this year, with a projected breakout above $5,000 in 2026. Bitcoin, while lagging tech stocks and gold, offers a buying opportunity due to its relative underperformance.

Gold: In 2025, gold has already broken above $4,000, with pullbacks likely in the $3,500–3,600 range rather than a reversal. Central banks have been buying record amounts for three consecutive years, and Western investment demand is finally recovering. Gold ETF holdings remain far below historical peaks, leaving significant room for inflows.

Natural Resources: The world is entering a structural electricity shortage era. AI data centers, electrification, reshoring, and urbanization are driving power demand growth at the fastest pace in decades. Inadequate energy supply, aging grids, and tight supply chains are underpinning commodity prices. Natural gas benefits as a bridge fuel, and copper stands out due to supply-demand gaps.

Fixed Income: Most fixed income sectors delivered mid-to-high single-digit returns in 2025, but yields have fallen significantly, making baseline returns for 2026 more moderate. Credit spreads are at historical lows, and corporate fundamentals are strong. Emerging market local currency debt remains attractive.

Investment Logic Analysis

• Behind the shift in capital flows are structural drivers:- AI Phase 2: Shifting from speculation to tangible returns verification, capital will flow from pure-concept stocks to AI applications and infrastructure with clear ROI.
• De-dollarization: Central bank gold purchases reflect reserve diversification trends, weakening the dollar system and benefiting gold and Bitcoin.
• Energy Transition & Reindustrialization: Electrification demand is irreversible, while mineral supply is constrained (copper mine development cycle 7-10 years), pushing up raw material prices.
• End of Monetary Easing: Global central bank rate-cutting cycles are nearing their end, but U.S. fiscal deficits and Japan's interest rate dilemma may trigger bond market volatility, with capital moving to high-yield assets.

How do institutional investors view this? The VanEck team believes: gold mining stocks remain undervalued despite record corporate cash flows; natural resource companies have strong free cash flow, but the market has yet to fully price in long-term structural demand; fixed income should focus on quality to provide a buffer against volatility.

Risk Factors

• Macro Risks: Weak U.S. employment alongside upside growth surprises, sticky inflation may limit Fed rate cuts; Japan's interest rate normalization could cause global long-end rate volatility.
• Policy Risks: Tariffs, industrial policies, and uncertainty over China's growth trajectory; rising fiscal deficit concerns driving up Treasury yields.
• Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing global tensions may disrupt supply chains and energy trade.
• Market Valuation Risks: Tech stocks are overvalued, credit spreads too narrow; any negative shock could trigger a correction.

Long-Term Outlook

Over a 3–10 year horizon, AI and robotics will deliver outsized results, but 2026 is not a year of full-scale breakout. Physical assets enter a decade-long supercycle, with gold's central price moving higher; Bitcoin, as an alternative currency, is expected to benefit when financial conditions ease. The growth in electricity demand for natural resources is a long-term trend; attention should be paid to next-generation technologies such as advanced nuclear, geothermal, and hydrogen. Fixed income requires vigilance against sovereign debt risks, but the diversification value of emerging market bonds will persist.

Overall, 2026 is a period of structural transition. Investors need to position for long-term trends amid volatility and adhere to selective investing.

*Note: This article is based on the outlook of VanEck portfolio managers and does not constitute investment advice.*